Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

729
FXUS65 KGJT 060910
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
310 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection will continue through the morning across central
  portions of the area with light to moderate rain and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- More showers and storms are expected today favoring the
  northern and central portions of eastern Utah and western
  Colorado as a upper level trough and surface cold front move
  through.

- Heavy rain, gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning are the
  main concerns today with localized flooding possible. Some
  storms could be strong to severe, especially across northwest
  Colorado.

- Drier and warmer conditions return by the weekend into early
  next week with afternoon storms favoring the high terrain and
  more of a gusty wind threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Convection continues into the early morning hours as an area of
light to moderate rain showers with pockets of heavier rain
tracks over the central portions of western Colorado. Rain rates
are not nearly as intense as they were around midnight when
the Grand Junction Regional Airport received 0.34 inches of rain
within an hour. Infrared satellite and radar appear less intense
as they were around that time but this same batch of showers is
still tracking across the central portions of the area with
lighter rain rates. Some isolated showers are even popping up
now in northeast Utah at this time. This overnight convection is
likely the result of a weak embedded shortwave that is evident
when looking at the H5 wind streamlines and these showers look
to continue through sunrise as this weak shortwave tracks
across the central mountain and I-70 corridor and exits Vail by
sunrise or shortly after.

We may see a brief lull before convection fires out ahead of a
rather robust shortwave trough dropping through the Northern
Rockies. Showers and storms today look to favor northern and
central portions of the forecast area. Both the HRRR and NAMNest
are in good agreement with the timing of this activity, showing
storms firing by late morning across northeast Utah into
northwest Colorado. CAPE already increases to between 400 and
600 J/kg between 9 and 10 am across much of the area and stays
elevated through the better part of the afternoon, with focus of
the best instability shifting towards central portions of the
area by this evening. This coincides well with a cold front that
will accompany this positively tilted trough. Storms will
develop out ahead of and along the cold front as it tracks from
northeast Utah late this morning into northwest Colorado this
afternoon, reaching the I-70 corridor by mid to late afternoon
into the central Colorado mountain areas south of I-70 by early
evening before exiting shortly after sunset. Even though
northern and central areas will be favored, we will still see
storms develop over the high terrain across the south. Expect to
see heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, small hail and frequent
lightning with storms. We could see some stronger storms north
of I-70 as less cloud cover will result in more surface heating
this morning to act on this instability. Plus, we have better
shear across the north of 40 to 50 kts. Deep moisture remains in
place as PWAT anomalies are still in the 200 to 250 percent of
normal range as this moisture from remnants of Tropical Storm
Alvin continues to be recycled. This cold front and trough will
be enough to sweep out this remnant moisture and advect some
drier air behind it. However, we tend to see the strongest
storms along the boundary between this deep moisture and drier
airmass. Cannot rule out a couple severe storms or localized
flooding either given the environment but storm motion does
appear more robust than previous days.

Showers and storms come to an end after sunset this evening and
don`t expect much lingering overnight as drier air pushes in
behind the frontal boundary and trough, helping sweep out the
moisture. Dry northwest flow emerges Friday night into Saturday
with a ridge of high pressure starts to develop to the west.
This should result in a downturn in afternoon convection and a
much drier and warmer day Saturday than today. Some cumulus may
pop over the western Colorado mountains along the divide but
don`t expect much in the way of convection. Temperatures will be
cooler today due to moisture and shower/storm activity with
highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal but should bounce back
Saturday with plenty of sunshine and highs warming about 10
degrees from today to end up near to about 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This weekend we break out of our wet, troughy weather pattern
as a ridge builds in over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge
gradually moves inland this weekend before taking up residence
over the Intermountain West early next week. Weekend
temperatures become more seasonable as a result before warming
to 5-10 degrees above normal next week. A couple of weak low
pressure centers hanging out off the California coast will keep
a steady stream of moisture in place for the foreseeable future.
PWATs will generally remain about 150% of normal through early
next week. This is a big drop from the 200-250% we`ve had in
place this week, but high enough to spawn afternoon convection
over the higher terrain each afternoon despite the lack of
synoptic forcing with high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

An area of light to moderate rain showers will continue to
progress across central portions of the area with MVFR
conditions at times through about 12Z. This includes KGJT, KRIL,
KEGE and KASE. After a brief break in shower activity, showers
and thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of an approaching cold
front after 16Z across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado,
spreading southeast through the remaining northern and central
portions of the area with best potential for rain and
thunderstorms between 20Z and 02Z. This will affect most TAF
sites with exception of the far southern sites near the New
Mexico border, including KDRO. Highest confidence in prevailing
showers/storms or VCTS at KHDN, KASE, KEGE and KRIL in closer
proximity to the front and better forcing. Kept PROB30 for the
remaining areas where potential exists but timing is a bit more
uncertain. Moderate to heavy rain, lightning, small hail and
gusty winds all possible with storms with MVFR/IFR and ILS
conditions with storms. Showers look to come to an end for the
most part after 03Z with skies clearing from the northwest as
drier air moves in this evening into the overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT