Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

897
FXUS65 KGJT 070110
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
610 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue across the region this afternoon ending
  northwest to southeast through the evening.

- Expect dry and warmer conditions through the weekend and into
  next week with temperatures warming back to 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal by Monday.

- There is a slight chance for some mountain snow showers
  Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Updated to let the Winter Weather Advisories for the northern
mountains expire at 6 pm MST. Light snow may continue on and off
again through the evening but the additional significant
accumulation is no longer expected. The Winter Weather
Advisories for the central and southern mountains remain in
effect until midnight tonight as the low pressure system
continues to work through southwest Colorado this evening with
wraparound convective showers ongoing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Radar and satellite imagery indicate the models are tracking well
pushing this system through to the east across the central
Colorado mountains. The precipitation is becoming more
convective as the day heats up, especially down south. Expect a
few thunderstorm possible through the afternoon over the
Uncompahgre and the San Juans. Look for these showers to end
northwest to southeast across eastern Utah and Western Colorado
through the late afternoon and evening with only a few lingering
snow showers along the Divide overnight. With the skies
clearing out, the morning lows will run near normal to about
five degrees below normal. The clear skies tomorrow will let
temperatures rebound five to ten degrees over today`s highs with
the beginning of a warming trend, but radiative cooling
tomorrow night will keep the snow covered valleys cold Sunday
morning, near normal. Tomorrow will be a nice day with light
northerly breezes and lots of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

On Sunday morning, a closed low will be located off the northern
Baja coast, and troughing will be dominant east of the Divide. For
eastern Utah and western Colorado, we remain under a col between
these features, with very light upper level flow. Combined with a
dry airmass in place, this will keep things quiet and sunny, with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.

The biggest question of the long term period is what will happen
with the Baja low. Models do seem to be starting to come into
agreement, with ensemble and deterministic guidance generally
keeping the low well south of the Four Corners as it tracks east
Tuesday. However, a wave in the northern stream flow drops into the
Intermountain West around the same time, and, depending on the
guidance, phases with the southern stream closed low. This would
induce a broad area of weak dynamic lift across eastern Utah and
western Colorado, and bring a chance of more widespread light
mountain showers on Tuesday. Modest moisture will be present, with
ensemble PWATs forecasted to be 100-130% of normal. In the event
these two features don`t phase, which currently seems the most
likely solution as three of the four ensemble clusters favor it,
that doesn`t completely rule out a few light showers. The passing
northern stream wave and upper level flow shifting to westerly to
northwesterly could induce very light orographic showers over the
northern Divide. Either way, blended guidance is currently not
indicating any accumulations, liquid or frozen.

Both northern stream wave and southern stream low track east of the
Divide by Wednesday morning, with high pressure starting to build in
over the West Coast. This will keep dry northwesterly flow dominant
over the Great Basin, and potentially bring some breezy conditions
for the latter half of the week. Warm air advection also kicks in in
earnest at this point. By Thursday temperatures will be 10-15, in
some spots close to 20, degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Breakpoint conditions will continue across the mountains this
evening, as the remnants of the winter storm are slow to exit.
Dry air is already producing some improvements along the UT/CO
line. This will spread east before daybreak and the mountains
should see VFR conditions by mid-day Saturday. Some scattered
showers could pop up on the San Juans, affecting KTEX Saturday
afternoon, but this is a low confidence bet at this point. Winds
will diminish this evening too, returning to light and terrain
driven to close out the period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ010-
     012-017>019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT