Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS65 KGJT 042324
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
524 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather conditions alleviate today and Sunday as winds
  weaken. Fuels and surface conditions are still dry though.
  Obey all fire restrictions.

- Above normal temperatures make a return for the holiday
  weekend and beyond.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could return as early as
  Sunday, with coverage increasing Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances for wetting rain remain low, instead dry lightning
  poses a threat to new fire starts early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

DRY AND HOT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK:

Dry conditions will be present this holiday weekend with
temperatures heating up as a ridge of high pressure slides over
the region and the upper level jet lifts well north of the area
with the strongest winds across the Northern Rockies and the
U.S.-Canadian border as a more robust trough moves across the
Canadian Prairies. The good news is that winds across our region
this weekend into the coming week will be much less than our
recent stretch due to less gradient winds overhead, resulting in
a reprieve from widespread critical fire weather conditions.
Localized fire weather conditions are still possible across the
Four Corners with gusts 20 to 25 mph but overall, winds should
be much less than previous days even though temperatures will be
rising towards 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs in lower
valleys will be rising well into the 90s with some triple digit
heat eventually showing up across some lower desert valleys
especially by mid to late next week. Smoke from nearby wildfires
will continue to linger and this could have an impact on our
temperatures being overestimated in some areas. Regardless, it
will be hot this weekend heading into the coming week.

Even though fire weather conditions will have alleviated this
holiday weekend due to weaker winds, dry vegetation and surface
conditions will still pose risks of new fire starts. It is
imperative to be aware of and obey all fire restrictions, and be
mindful of wildfire prevention tips.

MOISTURE ARRIVING, LITTLE RAIN, AND DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:

Enough moisture, forcing and instability remains across our
northern areas today for isolated storms to develop over the
higher terrain north of I-70...in particular the eastern Uintas
and Flattops. Otherwise, dry conditions remain. Attention turns
towards moisture advecting northeastward around the high from
the Baja Peninsula and SoCal and tracking across the Great Basin
and western slope late Sunday into early next week. There are
some slight timing differences with onset of this moisture (GFS
ensembles being a bit earlier Sunday where the EC ensembles hold
off until Monday). The ensembles do however agree that this
moisture peaks on Tuesday with PWAT anomalies in the 120 to 140
percent of normal range. Regardless, this moisture is elevated
and the low levels remain dry. So this unfortunately draws up
concerns for dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather
section for more details). Sunday appears more isolated in
coverage along the spine of the divide with Monday and Tuesday
having better coverage across the western Colorado mountains,
particularly the San Juans. Wetting rain chances do appear
better in the San Juans Monday and Tuesday but there is
uncertainty with regards to whether it will be enough as low
levels remain dry. The residence time of this moisture isn`t
long enough either for much precipitation to overcome the dry
low levels as drier air looks to move back in and push this mid
level moisture out by Thursday. So dry thunderstorms remain
more of the concern here with potential for new fire starts as
well as gusty outflow winds. Coverage becomes more isolated by
Thursday and Friday and a ridge builds in and amplifies across
the Great Basin by weeks end. Stay up to date on the latest
forecast as more hi-res guidance comes in and we get a better
handle on this dry thunderstorm potential early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Overall VFR conditions in place with much lighter winds. However
smoke from active wildfires across our southern CWA is leading
to MVFR conditions at KTEX which may linger well into the early
morning hours. Similar conditions expected tomorrow with mainly
clear skies and light winds...with some obscuration to terrain
and visibility by the afternoon as smoke plumes develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fire weather conditions reach their first lull in quite some
time today as weak flow spreads out across the region,
prompting gusts to generally fall below Red Flag thresholds.
With the atmosphere still very dry though, look for surface
relative humidities to remain in the low teens to single digits.

Next week, the region sees its first glimpse of notable
moisture in over a week. The caveat appears to be that the bulk
of this moisture lingers in the mid-level atmosphere. The
initial push of moisture will creep in from the south on Sunday.
Inverted-V atmospheric profiles with relatively moist mid-
layers could prompt some pyroconvection over hot spots on Sunday
as a result. Over the following three days (Monday through
Wednesday) surface moisture will be peaking. Unfortunately this
doesn`t mean a whole lot as most valleys won`t get much higher
than 10-20% RH with any soothing RH values reserved for the
higher elevations. As such, concerns are increasing that we
could be facing another multi-day stretch of dry lightning
focused around the slopes of the San Juans, albeit other
locations across the CWA are poised for slight chances of
thunderstorms as well (<35% chance). This will threaten new
lightning ignitions and exacerbated wildfire conditions near
virga showers and any gusty outflow winds that they produce.

To leave you off with a bit of good news though, beyond
Wednesday spanning at least through the end of the work week,
though RH falls off once again, the overarching upper-level
pattern does not appear to become conducive to critical fire
weather conditions as flow remains on the weaker side. This
pattern is relatively well-agreed upon amongst ensembles as
well. Increasing heat and dryness will still likely pose some
fire weather issues, but without the strong winds to accompany,
early indications are critical fire weather conditions may be
avoided. There is still plenty of time between now and then
though, so stay tuned for future forecast updates in case
models begin to trend in another direction.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT