Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS65 KGJT 191126
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
526 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through the
  weekend and into the work week around the region.

- Flash flooding remains a threat for burn scars and flood prone
  areas.

- Smoke will continue to ebb and flow around the forecast area
  along with wildfire activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Satellite imagery shows the West Texas high and the Southern
California low continuing to pull the plume of moisture moving up
through Arizona into eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Models have
slowed or stopped wanting to eject the low to the northeast across
the region to thereby maintain the moist flow yet another day or
two. Dew points in southern Arizona are down into the low 50`s and
upper 40`s indicating the moisture isn`t as deep as it was
yesterday, but models seem to be going overboard mostly dropping the
probability of precipitation across the region below 10% with the
exception of along the Divide and in the Uintas. Manually added
terrain driven convection back into the PoPs based on the observed
moist flow to at least give isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. A weak jet streak overhead lends support for convection
over the higher terrain from southeastern Utah up through central
and northern Colorado. The dry lower levels will cause increased
evaporation of the rain resulting in little if any precipitation and
stronger outflow winds with gusts to 50 mph or more possible. Expect
much the same Sunday with little change in the weather pattern. Look
for temperatures to run near normal through the weekend across the
region. It`s a great time to get out and enjoy the area, but
exercise extra care to prevent fires as conditions remain critically
dry, especially in the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

On Sunday dry air will still be in place, which should limit
afternoon convection. Although the high terrain can expect isolated
to scattered showers and storms. Highs come up a few degrees in the
drier air. On Monday there are signs that moisture surges back in
from the south as heights increase due to a PacNW trough. This
should result in another uptick in showers and storms around the
area into Tuesday. The uncertainty is how that PacNW trough evolves,
because as it ejects and breaks apart flow over us will change. With
dry air not far to our west it will only take an slight shift to
west northwest to advect that air into the area. Ensembles are
showing that eventually the dry air filters in later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop between
18Z and 00Z across the higher terrain with more scattered to
numerous along the central and southern Colorado Divide. Primary
threats will be lightning and gusts to 35 kts from storms.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and mostly light winds through
the TAF period, the exception being southwest winds gusting
20-25 kts between 18Z and 00Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...DB